Bay St. Louis, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

189
FXUS64 KLIX 250326
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1026 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Update to the forecast sent to increase PoPs once again overnight.
Still a lot of questions if convection can become scattered to
widespread or more isolated overnight that said there will still
be at least some showers and a few storms out there through the
night. However, looking at the current mesoanalysis the convection
that is firing over the area already and the strong storms just
off to the northwest is associated with the richer theta e air.
That LL theta e ridge axis is expected to slowly push east across
the cwa overnight and as long as that happen as the convection
doesn`t catchup and surpass it storms will be possible if not
likely through the night. We are already seeing a slight increase
in the Atchafalaya basin with with weak LL convergence expected
over the area through the overnight hours and fairly decent upper
lvl diffluence combining with increasing Pwats (1.52" on this
evenings sndg) seeing more in favor of additional development
overnight instead of things dying out. This is in stark contrast
to the models especially the CAMs which are absolutely struggling
with the environment that last few days. Biggest unknown is if
there is any one area that could see storms hover over like they
did early this morning near Baton Rouge. Confidence is not highs
in but if there is it would be likely near and just south of the
MS/LA and southeast to just north of Hammond. This appears to have
the highest combination of features expected through mid morning.
From 9z through 13/14z is the best chance for flooding concerns as
storms would be slow to move and likely more dictated by
propagation and leftover boundaries.

The MCS that blew through TX and into northwest and west LA may
begin to redevelop early in the morning. If that occurs it will
slide southeast and then surge through much of SELA through the
late morning and midday hours. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Another weak upper level shortwave trough will move through the
Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight into tomorrow, and this
feature should provide just enough forcing to allow for another
round of shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow. Initially, a
weakening MCS will be moving into the northern portion of the CWA
tomorrow morning. This weakening system will produce an outflow
boundary that should serve as a focusing mechanism for additional
convective activity along the I-12 corridor, especially for areas
around Baton Rouge and Hammond. PWATS will be slightly lower
tomorrow, but will still be in the 75th percentile range. This
will support a continued heavy rainfall threat has storm motion
remains low tomorrow. The highest PoP values will be along and
north of the 10/12 corridor tomorrow afternoon. The convective
activity should start to wane very quickly in the evening hours as
the shortwave trough departs to the east and increasing heights
aloft associated with a building ridge axis start to influence the
region.

As the ridge continues to build into the region over the weekend,
increasing deep layer subsidence will warm and dry out the
atmosphere substantially. PWATS will fall to around the 25th
percentile for this time of year and this will greatly inhibit
cloud development overall rain chances. At most, an isolated
shower or storm may develop over parts of southwest Mississippi as
another weak shortwave passes through the mid-Mississippi
Valley allowing for just enough lift to overcome the strong
capping inversion. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and warmer
temperatures are anticipated for Saturday. Highs will easily climb
into the mid to upper 80s and heat index values will rise into the
lower 90s. Overnight lows will only cool into the upper 60s and
lower 70s as persistent low level onshore flow keeps pumping Gulf
moisture into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Sunday through Tuesday will be very warm and dry as the deep
layer ridge axis remains firmly entrenched across the central Gulf
coast. PWATS will remain in the 25th percentile range and
temperatures will easily climb into the upper 80s over much of the
area. Dewpoints will also remain elevated in the lower 70s and
this will support heat index values in the low to mid 90s. The
warmest readings will be over inland areas and away from the
moderating seabreeze. Overall, conditions will feel more akin to
those seen in late May or early June as opposed to late April.

A pattern change in the upper levels will take hold on Wednesday
as the ridge axis begins to shift to the east and a vigorous
southern stream trough moves into Texas. Although ridging will
begin to decrease and PWATS will climb back to the median for this
time of year, a strong mid-level capping inversion will remain in
place. This is due to continued influence from the departing ridge
keeping dry air in place in the mid-levels. At most, isolated and
diurnally forced convection could develop over the far northwest
part of the forecast area where slightly lower heights and a
weaker capping inversion are expected to be in place. Otherwise,
warm and dry conditions will persist as highs climb back into the
mid to upper 80s and heat indices rise back into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Right now most terminals are still in VFR status but feel like
this will begin to change especially across the northwest where
low cigs will likely develop and even convection will be possible
if not expected. Cigs will likely drop to MVFR status for all
terminals but those 2 in the northwest and maybe even HDC could
see IFR cigs between 9-14z. As long as there is no convection
impacting any terminals cigs should begin to improve rapidly
after 14/15z. Convection is likely going to impact most terminals
tomorrow as the remnants of the MCS that surged through TX begins
to refire tomorrow morning just off to the northwest and slide
southeast through the day. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

No significant impacts to maritime activities are expected
through early next week. High pressure will be centered directly
over or just to the east of the waters through the period, and
this will result in light winds of around 10 knots and seas of 1
to 3 feet on average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  84  66  86 /  40  60  30  20
BTR  69  85  67  86 /  30  60  30  10
ASD  69  84  68  86 /  20  40  20  10
MSY  72  84  71  85 /  10  40  20  10
GPT  71  81  69  82 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  69  81  69  84 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...PG